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Rashmee Roshan Lall writes in The Times of India of 18th April 2026
European Leaders may be uncomfortable with Trump's Iran war but won't dare criticize him. For, US remains the guarantor of western security
It reminded me of my response to a WhatsApp post forwarded by an acquaintance that prophesied imminent disaster for America.
The response is here and the WhatsApp post is afterwards
Everyone wants America to go broke.
It was because of them World Wars 1 & 2 were not lost to the marauding Germans and their allies. Continent far away, they could have remained where they were and enjoyed the fierce battles that went on in Europe and elsewhere.
If they were not there the Soviets would have taken over the rest of the world.
They are the last hope for freedom of the individual in the world
Of course, they are imperfect. That they show off as well.
Americans were scared stiff when the twin towers were destroyed.
They won't let anyone to build capabilities for an encore nor detonate a nuclear device in their domain.
Question is do we want freedom as it is in China or other autocratic countries.
But people will be happy when a megalith falters and falls. They dream of such a day.
But after that what, they don't ever think
WhatsApp post
The End of America ?
The Strait of Hormuz may be the end of America.
Professor Ray Dalio, a researcher in the history of empires over 500 years and a manager of billions of dollars, published an article in which he said:
One sentence in it summarizes everything:
“Losing control of the Strait of Hormuz may be, for America, like Britain losing control of the Suez Canal in 1956.”
Before you understand this sentence, we must talk about the year 1956.
Because what happened in 1956 may be repeated today.
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1956: The End of Britain
For 200 years, Britain was the superpower of the world.
The British pound was the world’s currency, and its navy controlled the oceans.
The most important point of its power: the Suez Canal.
A large portion of global trade passes through this canal. Whoever controls the canal controls global trade.
In 1956, Egypt nationalized the canal. They said: “It is ours now.”
Britain threatened: “Open the canal or we will come.”
Egypt did not open the canal.
Britain, along with France and Israel, launched an attack.
But what happened, happened.
America said: “Enough.”
The Soviets said: “Enough.”
The United Nations said: “Enough.”
Britain was forced to retreat.
On that day, the world saw something:
Britain was no longer a superpower.
What happened after that?
The British pound collapsed.
Allies distanced themselves.
Colonies began declaring independence.
Capital fled from Britain.
Within twenty years, Britain became an ordinary country.
An empire that lasted 200 years ended because of one canal.
It was not just a canal — it ended because of one perception:
“This country is no longer strong.”
The moment this perception took hold, money fled, allies withdrew, and the system collapsed.
Dalio says: the same thing may happen to America now.
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Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
20% of global oil supplies pass through this strait.
Saudi oil comes through it.
UAE oil comes through it.
Kuwait oil comes through it.
Iraq oil comes through it.
What happens if the strait is closed?
Oil prices will rise.
The global economy will stop.
Gulf countries will be unable to export.
Europe will face an energy crisis.
Asian factories will shut down.
Imagine it like this:
There is only one tunnel on a highway.
All trucks pass through it — food, fuel, raw materials, everything.
Someone sits at the entrance of the tunnel and says:
“No one passes without my permission.”
This is what Iran is doing now.
Dalio says: if America cannot open this tunnel, everything will change.
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Dalio’s Historical Equation
Dalio studied 500 years of history.
He examined the rise and fall of every great empire.
He found a pattern.
The pattern is: things always end the same way.
A superpower controls global money, controls sea routes, and everyone trusts it.
Then a smaller power challenges it on a vital trade route.
The superpower threatens:
“Open the seas or I will invade.”
The whole world watches.
If the superpower opens the route →
its power is reinforced, trust continues, money flows, and the system continues.
If it fails →
everything turns upside down.
Trust collapses.
Allies withdraw.
Money flees.
A debt crisis begins.
The empire collapses.
This is how Portugal ended.
This is how the Netherlands ended.
This is how Britain ended.
Dalio says:
“When great powers sink into debt and show loss of military and financial control, watch how they lose the trust of allies and creditors, lose reserve currency status, and their currency weakens — especially against gold.”
Read that sentence again.
Now look at America.
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America’s Situation
Debt: $38 trillion.
Interest payments: more than $1 trillion annually.
A quarter of tax revenue goes to interest.
It lost in Vietnam.
Withdrew from Afghanistan.
Spent 20 years in Iraq, leaving chaos behind.
The world now believes America is no longer strong.
Now it is confronting Iran.
⸻
What did Trump say?
“If they plant mines and they are not removed immediately, the military consequences will be unprecedented.”
⸻
What does Dalio say?
“I often hear senior politicians in other countries say privately:
‘Trump speaks fluently, but when things get tough, can he fight and win?’”
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The Critical Point
Dalio’s most important observation:
In war, your ability to endure pain is more important than your ability to inflict pain.
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What are the Iranians doing?
They are trying to prolong the war.
They are escalating it gradually.
Because everyone knows the American public and leadership have limited tolerance for prolonged pain and war.
Iran’s plan is simple:
Make the war long and painful enough — America will withdraw.
This is what happened in Vietnam.
This is what happened in Afghanistan.
For Iran, this war is existential.
It is about revenge.
It is about honor.
They are fighting for something more important than life itself.
What concerns Americans?
Fuel prices.
Midterm elections.
This imbalance terrifies Dalio.
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Is a deal possible?
Dalio’s answer is clear: No.
“Everyone knows that not reaching a deal will not resolve this war.”
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What comes next?
Whether Hormuz remains under Iranian control or is taken from it,
the coming period will be the worst phase of the conflict.
Iran’s statement:
“All oil, economic, and energy facilities in the region belonging to or cooperating with the United States will be destroyed immediately and turned to ashes.”
This final war is approaching.
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Dalio says the outcome of this war will reshape history.
It will not be limited to the Middle East.
Trade flows will change.
Capital flows will change.
China, Russia, North Korea, Europe, India, and Japan will all be affected.
⸻
If America wins:
Trust in the dollar will increase.
Demand for bonds will rise.
Allies will align closer.
Trump’s authority will strengthen.
American dominance will continue.
⸻
If America loses:
The dollar will collapse.
Bonds will be sold off.
Gold will surge dramatically.
Alliances will weaken.
BRICS will strengthen.
China’s rise will accelerate.
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Dalio’s lesson from 500 years of history:
Money and power always flow to the winner —
and flee from the loser.
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Conclusion
Dalio says clearly:
The Strait of Hormuz is America’s final test.
If it wins →
its dominance continues, Trump’s power increases, the dollar rises.
If it loses →
the 1956 Britain scenario begins.
The dollar collapses.
Gold skyrockets.
Alliances fragment.
The American era ends.
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Five hundred years of history tell the same story:
Empires end when they lose vital trade routes.
Portugal ended.
The Netherlands ended.
Britain ended.
Is it America’s turn?
The answer lies in Hormuz.
